On 16-11-2024 18:27, tito via Dng wrote:
> On Sat, 16 Nov 2024 17:03:15 +0000
> Simon Hobson<simon@???> wrote:
>
>> On 10 Nov 2024, at 23:15, o1bigtenor via Dng<dng@???> wrote:
>>
>> “Tough to source” is relative.
>> Much of what we take for granted these days was once “tough to source”, other things are getting tougher to source but the market is such that the effort is worth it along with engineering/scientific advancement having made it practical.
>>
>>
>> Now, if you understand the no breakfast fallacy, then you’ll also understand that the hand wringing over supplies of things like lithium (and “rare earths” that are the other commonly cited problem) is overdoing it.
>> Doing a quick search, I findhttps://cen.acs.org/materials/inorganic-chemistry/Can-seawater-give-us-lithium-to-meet-our-battery-needs/99/i36 andhttps://samcotech.com/is-it-possible-to-extract-lithium-from-seawater/#:~:text=By%20contrast%2C%20seawater%20contains%20less,using%20normal%20lithium%20extraction%20technologies.
>>
>> Key takeaway. It is possible to extract lithium from seawater, but at present it isn’t financially viable. But there is a massive amount of lithium in the oceans.
>> So if you apply the logic explained in the no breakfast fallacy, you’ll realise that there isn’t that much of a problem - if supplies look like running low, prices will rise (or at least, the expectation of prices rising in the future will be there*), other resources will become financially viable for conversion to reserves and then to actual supplies.
> I would object that if prices of lithium rise and make the extraction with whatever technology viable also the prices of EVs which are already
> very expensive and not much more than toy cars for the rich will rise even more reducing the number of EVs sold and thusly making
> them even more expensive so that in the end nobody wants to buy them. This process already started as EVs clog the parkings of their
> factories. Normal cars if well maintained last 20-30 years, there is no EV that will last that long, due to battery wear and due to the fact
> that in a few years the motherboards built in them and their chips well be obsolete, broken and/or out of production and like your smartphone
> there will not be software updates to fix security vulnerabilities and bugs and therefore you will not be allowed to drive them.
>
> Just my 2 cents,
> Ciao,
> Tito

It is very clear that EVs are not for everywhere but very usable in
cities and other densely populated areas. And that are the areas where
you want them because the positive effects on air pollution. Do not
forget that the first electric cars were cabs in cities more then 100
years ago.
Batteries are already better than expected and will become better over
time and charging those batteries will become faster too. But it will
take time and our petrol producing 'friends' will tell you it will never
happen. Until they will be able to produce hydrogen in large quantities
for competing prices.

Just my € 0,02.