---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: o1bigtenor <o1bigtenor@???>
Date: Wed, Nov 6, 2024 at 6:45 AM
Subject: Re: [DNG] Waaay OT: EVs 'n Solar 'n Tractors [Was: Re:
another programming language question
To:
Cc: <dng@???>


On Tue, Nov 5, 2024 at 10:29 PM Erik Christiansen via Dng
<dng@???> wrote:
>
> On 05.11.24 06:59, o1bigtenor via Dng wrote:
> > Dunno if you quite get the extent of weather
> > conditions like I get to experience (think Karl also gets a wck load!!).
>
> SE Australia, 64m (211') above sea level: We don't know what snow is, and
> it can be months in between serious rain. Just enough regular overcast
> to warrant half the off-grid batteries I have, but not enough to make me
> anxious about charging the EV as well, even in the depths of winter.
> (You'd split your sides at what I think is winter, mind you.)
> Even in deep winter, the back-up generator hasn't had a run, so I'd
> better give it one for maintenance. That's due to the 27 kW of panels
> generating 3 to 5 kW in complete medium density overcast, so long as
> it's not raining.

I have experienced more than occasionally periods of up to over 40 days of
continuous overcast in the deep winter. Now solar cells are more efficient
in colder temperatures but even if they are 50% more efficient but the cells
are getting less than 10% (a number I'm pulling out of my butt!) of solar
insolation needed for rated capacity you just aren't getting enough juice to
use solar panels as your main energy source.
>
> As for cold-climate EVs, it's my (purely theoretical) understanding that
> in -45°C you'd want a Tesla, a warm garage, and grid-powered battery
> warming before leaving home. Outdoor parking wouldn't be a viable option,
> if you wanted any range.

Actually what you want is a warm home and to be able to stay there!
Dunno where one would find heating parking (likely be quite expensive
when away from home) and besides I don't have the $100k for the Tesla.
>
> > Have considered getting solar panels except it seems we have some kind
> > of proclivity for getting some 20 to even 35 or more overcast days in
> > the time period from Nov 15 to Feb 15th - - - so a backup generator
> > would be a serious necessity - - - likely not going to happen any time
> > soon although I would love to go off grid!
>
> Yes, hard off-grid predicates a back-up generator. But that's not too
> expensive - all I have is a little 3.2 kW Honda unit. It could run for
> 16 hrs to charge my 46 kWh of batteries, while they deliver any load
> peaks, via the redundant 6 KVA battery inverters. But panels are cheaper than batteries - a 300% oversized array can smack a lot of energy into a large battery bank in one sunny afternoon. And in a lot of overcast, ya don't need a lot of aircon. My 46 kWh of batteries is more than enough for our winter overcast, which is similar to yours.

I'm thinking I might be needing something like at least a 500% oversize
here and panels (well panels are relatively cheap but the electronics sure
aren't!) well then there becomes the issue - - - - where to stick them!!!

>
> My DIY battery banks comprise 48 off 304 AH LiFePO₄ prismatic cells,
> with a Jikong BMS on each 16 cell bank. That gave me 46 kWh for A$18k,
> about 1.3 times the installed price of one Tesla Powerwall. There are
> now boxed 16 kWh banks available at reasonable prices, for simple plug&play
> semi-DIY - lots easier, and safer for muggles.
>
> > Then there is the cost of those EV vehicles - - - - I just can't make
> > them pencil out.
>
> That may be the case in USA, at least until NAFTA-shielded Mexico ramps
> up manufacture. Having to wait a bit will only give you more for less,
> as Lithium prices fall, battery tech sneaks ahead at a surprising clip
> (due to the utter millions spent on it), and economies of scale feed
> into a price war which is already killing the slow witted companies now
> experiencing a "Kodak moment". (Last week, VW announced closure of 3
> factories and sacking of tens of thousands. Expect more. Nissan stocks
> are junk, I read. GM may fold, and Ford's survival may yet need a bailout,
> as they cancel one US$2B effort to transition, and grasp for a viable
> way forward.)

Nissan Leaf and the Chev Bolt were two of three EVs that I considered
when I rolled my spreadsheet for lifetime costing. (I have a spreadsheet
with costs/km for the full range of my vehicles its now out of date but could
be updated easily.)
>
> We bemoaned losing our Aussie car manufacturing industry, but now
> there's no need for tariffs on EVs, and the nifty MG4 is only A$31k,
> about US$20,500, so an ICE vehicle is unattractive in comparison, even
> before the cost of petrol (gas). Required service is "Come back every
> two years, for us to change the battery coolant.", with no radiator to
> top up, or oil to change. The base model MG4 has a 51 kWh LiFePO₄
> battery pack. That is much safer than Li-Ion, lasts twice as long, and
> is less SoC sensitive: the 20 - 80% SoC constraint for long Li-Ion
> battery life does not apply. There's multiple reports, from USA and
> China, of EV battery packs still having 80% of capacity after half a
> million miles. The evidence points to EV battery packs having a useful
> second life off-grid, after the car has been driven into the ground.

And here what I'm hearing is that hybrid vehicles are worth almost nothing
or perhaps even a liability by age 6 because one needs to replace the battery
and that is NOT cheap.
>
> > If you are serious about an electric tractor - - - - reply and I will
> > get you some info sent. There is a Dutch company where they even seem
> > somewhat affordable. The offerings so far from the Big manufacturers
> > are running in the upper $200k (Can) in cost for a moderate sized
> > utility tractor with a 4 hour run time (largely a show piece item imo)
> > which I don't think you're talking about for expense.
>
> I'll investigate anything that's close to being real. All I need is a
> compact tractor, i.e. 25 hp, good for mowing a few acres and taking a
> small backhoe for clearing brush from my 7.2 km of boundary fence. At
> 70, a few hours of light work between charges is all I'm good for. (And for 9 months of the year, the kangaroos keep the home paddock down to 5 cm (2"), so it's only fair weather mowing at that.)

See attached article. No pricing mentioned - - - I called the company here
(sales company) in Canuckistan and asked about pricing.

Post was rejected due to attachment. I was also informed that this
topic was frivolous
and not worth the time on devuan - - - - funny how people think that
food comes from
a grocery store - - - isn't it! Dutch tractor company Knegt is what
you're looking for.
perhaps send me a private email if you wish more info - - - so those
who get their
food in a grocery store won't be disturbed.
>
> New Holland has a bigger unit, at least 45 hp, with a seriously
> substantial battery pack, but it's "Price On Application", so I'm in
> contact with an Indian manufacturer, to see if a retired electrical
> engineer can do anything to speed up productionising of their "Gen 2"
> compact EV tractor. Still waiting.
>
> > Interesting digressions from the programming languages!!!
>
> Yeah, it's worth keeping a weather eye on the rapid energy technology
> realignment, really going exponential now. ($1T globally last year, $2T+
> this year, steeper increase next year) Solar panels took decades to drop
> below 10% of early prices, but big batteries are about to outdo that
> startlingly, after a frustrating hiatus now falling behind us.

In this mad scramble to ram EVs down every throat there is absolutely no mention
as to the actual scarcity of Lithium. There is a huge scramble to find other
battery technologies but for mobile use there are some serious problems with
most alternative technologies.
>
> We've had HV power pylons storm-flattened in recent years, but now in two
> states in one week. I got a letter into a regional newspaper suggesting
> we can underground large parts of the grid now, or devolve into
> fragmented local generation and storage islands with only an intermittent
> national grid, as the +10% atmospheric moisture at +1.5°C becomes +20%
> moisture at +2°C by 2040 - and hurricanes are steam powered. When
> budgets are ransacked for remedial housing and food supply, there won't
> be funds for climate-resilient grid undergrounding. (But we're not long
> on foresight in any regard at the moment - emissions are still rising,
> for pixie's sake.)

Here we keep wasting more of our prime agricultural ground to put up ever
more power pylons.The last major line is for power export and AFAIK there
haven't been any sales for such - - - so only $3E09 and there are only some
3 conductors (I remember seeing power pylons north of Stuttgart with some
40 (!!!!) cables) but then who cares about food production - - - right??!?!??

Enough of the emissions are a result of our insatiable desire for ever more
junk to clutter our lives up with.

So - - - are you growing at least some of your food supply?
>
> Erik
> (An optimistic pessimist, who figures we're slow witted experiential
> learners, but the faster-learning adapters can survive. Probably. If
> you're on high ground. ;-)
> _
I like that - - - I call myself an optimistical pessimist - - - I know
that things
are going to 'ell in a handbasket but I hope they might change (don't think
they will - - - we like our convenience and pleasure far too much for that!).

Edited to try and squeeze into the tiny size allotment allowed on this list.

regards