On Sat, Nov 16, 2024 at 11:27 AM tito via Dng <dng@???> wrote:
>
> On Sat, 16 Nov 2024 17:03:15 +0000
> Simon Hobson <simon@???> wrote:
>
> > On 10 Nov 2024, at 23:15, o1bigtenor via Dng <dng@???> wrote:
> >
> > >>> In this mad scramble to ram EVs down every throat there is absolutely no mention
> > >>> as to the actual scarcity of Lithium.
> > >>
> > >> Possibly because there is no scarcity.
> > >> Lithium is actually quite plentiful. The only scarcity is down to economics - as demand increases and/or existing extraction/processing streams "dry up" then prices rise and it becomes economic to start extracting a different resource.
> > >> A goid read on this is The No Breakfast Fallacy written by Tim Worstall https://www.adamsmith.org/research/the-no-breakfast-fallacy
> > >
> > > Tried reading your item but can't get it to load - - - - it may be
> > > far too festooned with 3rd party links.
> >
> > Yes, seems to be broken, try this instead https://static1.squarespace.com/static/56eddde762cd9413e151ac92/t/56f71b64746fb9cb26770c9f/1459034981724/The-No-Breakfast-Fallacy-ONLINE2.pdf
> >
> >
> > > You might be quite surprised as not only is the lithium tough to
> > > source …
> >
> > “Tough to source” is relative.
> > Much of what we take for granted these days was once “tough to source”, other things are getting tougher to source but the market is such that the effort is worth it along with engineering/scientific advancement having made it practical.
> >
> >
> > Now, if you understand the no breakfast fallacy, then you’ll also understand that the hand wringing over supplies of things like lithium (and “rare earths” that are the other commonly cited problem) is overdoing it.
> > Doing a quick search, I find https://cen.acs.org/materials/inorganic-chemistry/Can-seawater-give-us-lithium-to-meet-our-battery-needs/99/i36 and https://samcotech.com/is-it-possible-to-extract-lithium-from-seawater/#:~:text=By%20contrast%2C%20seawater%20contains%20less,using%20normal%20lithium%20extraction%20technologies.
> >
> > Key takeaway. It is possible to extract lithium from seawater, but at present it isn’t financially viable. But there is a massive amount of lithium in the oceans.
> > So if you apply the logic explained in the no breakfast fallacy, you’ll realise that there isn’t that much of a problem - if supplies look like running low, prices will rise (or at least, the expectation of prices rising in the future will be there*), other resources will become financially viable for conversion to reserves and then to actual supplies.
>
> I would object that if prices of lithium rise and make the extraction with whatever technology viable also the prices of EVs which are already
> very expensive and not much more than toy cars for the rich will rise even more reducing the number of EVs sold and thusly making
> them even more expensive so that in the end nobody wants to buy them. This process already started as EVs clog the parkings of their
> factories. Normal cars if well maintained last 20-30 years, there is no EV that will last that long, due to battery wear and due to the fact
> that in a few years the motherboards built in them and their chips well be obsolete, broken and/or out of production and like your smartphone
> there will not be software updates to fix security vulnerabilities and bugs and therefore you will not be allowed to drive them.
>

But but but - - - - the EV companies have all PROMISED that the cars
will last at least until they're paid off - - - - (and likely not even
that and sarcasm switch off!)

Over and out