Hello

> > > You might be quite surprised as not only is the lithium tough to
> > > source the cobalt is worse and both are very important at the
> > > moment for contemporary Li-ion battery manufacture.
> >
> > Ooh, I can't go to bed. Somebody on the internet is wrong :)
> >
> > Lithium is actually quite common. See the "Occurrence"
> > section at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium
> >
> > "as common as chlorine in the earth's crust" is the TL;DR
>
> A pity you didn't read a bit further.
>
> You bet its common - - - - in at most double digits parts per million.
> Do you actually understand what that means - - - - that means
> that its all over and getting it in useful quantities is a royal pita.

But I did read further. I even clicked on one of the links.
This one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spodumene

Note the picture of a rock. Composition LiAl(SiO3)2

That isn't double digits parts per million - that is one
atom in ten and so a really nice ore.

The dozens parts per million is the crustal average.

> But then a wikipedia article is always the only place to check for
> information!

Lets look at a conversation of yours a bit earlier:

> > A goid read on this is The No Breakfast Fallacy written by Tim Worstall
> +https://www.adamsmith.org/research/the-no-breakfast-fallacy
>
> Tried reading your item but can't get it to load - - - - it may be
> far too festooned with 3rd party links.
>
> You may want to read this: https://www.iea.org/reports/lithium

Wikipedia was chosen as an accessible site with no third party
links. You can even download an offline version, which is
rather nice.

> > As for cobalt. LiFePo batteries replace the cobalt with
> > iron - the "Fe" stands for iron. So that problem is solved.
> > Done. Dusted. And sodium is about to replace lithium too.
>
> Please indicate the presently produced in volume today of
> batteries with your list chemistry - - - - oh I forgot you're
> including the university labs where they make them one at a time
> with multiple PhDs doing the work - - - - got it. I'm only reading the
> literature from the battery companies and the EV touts most of
> which is hugely optimistic.

Lets split that into two claims. My first claim: LiFePo solves
the cobalt problem. The reference in the first paragraph of

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate_battery

tells you that two years ago it already was 31% of all EV
batteries and that is cobalt free. It has only gone up since.

But if you don't like wikipedia, then just recall your
conversation with Erik in Australia right here on this
list. If you scroll back just a bit, you'll see the part
where he tells us that he owns 46kWh of them. LFP is real
and pervasive.

The my second claim: "sodium is about to replace lithium too".
That is a statement about the future, and so difficult to
settle conclusively right now. But CATL has already built
a hybrid sodium-lithium pack which can be found in
several car models. Seems like those industrious PhDs are
hard at work on the production line too.

https://carnewschina.com/2024/10/28/catl-announced-that-7-erevs-have-already-adopted-freevoy-battery/

4C charging is big news on its own too. And for Canadians:
Note the claimed temperature range. So strange that your
continent is making it hard to import them.

> > The flow of oil in the world is a major geopolitical
> > lever. A quarter of world shipping is petroleum and
> > its products. Established powers use this as a means to
> > dominate lesser ones. China, for all its flaws, has figured this
> > out and is solving it by moving to solar and EVs.
>
> Hmmm - - - is that why they're still buying coal for their iron
> operations by the train load?

That is not at odds, that is orthogonal. How they are going about
insulating other parts of their supply chain from external factors
is a different topic.

> > This shift will favour the developing world. Not only
> > are they the ones being dominated, rather than doing the
> > dominating, they also tend to be closer to the equator
> > where winters are minor, and batteries only need to last
> > the night rather than a long, dark winter.
>
> An EV is a serious liability in extreme cold conditions as
> was found last winter in Alberta last winter.

My point exactly. Hence the propaganda. From the "global
north". An unfortunate term, but has illustrative value
here.

> > When you read the news that EV sales are sluggish
> > and then a month later that EV tariffs are going up
> > then what your are witnessing is a disinformation effort
> > very similar to the one that had us believe that smoking
> > does not cause cancer or that climate change is a mean
> > hoax by dorky scientists.
>
> No - - - what I see is a small number of fat cats ripping off the
> rest of us some more - - - its not just about disinformation - - -
> its about $$$$$$$$$$.

Both can be true. Actually they usually work together. Propaganda
costs money and effective propaganda makes money. Would
it be less triggering if I used the word marketing rather
than propaganda or disinformation ? Historically the
only difference was who is paying for it - the state or
the corporation, but that seems to be blurring too.

regards

marc