dear Caleb,

On Thu, 10 Nov 2016, Caleb James DeLisle wrote:

> I expected a wave of hate-crime after the election, anti-trump riots
> caught me off guard.

I'm also surprised. I have so many feelings, hard to describe. I'm
just sure delusion is not one of them, since I have never-ever hoped
that business-as-usual would continue. Its only that the side effects
may be devastating in terms of police-state.

> He got only 4% of the vote in DC. Nassim Taleb said after the
> election that Goldman Sachs and the Saudis are the big losers so
> this could be significant.

Interesting, I think he is quite right on that. The markets are
pumping right now, but I guess its adrenaline and won't last past
2017/1Q when 'Trump meets the FED'.

> I expect the big tension will be between Trump and the judiciary.

for sure. Berlusconi's saga in Italy is a precursor, time to re-read
what happened there. the post-Trump political scenario may as well
include a "leftist justicialist" party in place of DNC deca-dance.

here below I include a far reaching analysis by Keith Hart. Worth read

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You will learn more about Trump in coming months. He isn't the
Mussolini (but with frightening power) that he threatened to be in
trying to win the election. He once said that he became a Republican
because Republicans will believe anything if they like to hear it. But
his anti-establishment, anti-ideology, anti-neoliberal pitch will
carry over, modified to meet new circumstances. Now he has to broaden
his appeal without alienating the Reaganite following that got him
where he is.

His first words on becoming President are significant and not just
temporary expedients like lock up Hillary, ban Muslim immigration and
build a wall to keep Mexicans out. He will not survive for long if he
doesn't deliver economic improvement to the white working class who
elected him (with the Southern racists -- the old Democrat core
coalition).

That's why his first promise was to introduce a Roosevelt New Deal
programme which would address home problems (inner cities,
infrastructure, while creating jobs). People like Krugman and Stiglitz
(and Keynes before them) have already been banging on about spend
don't save. Trump is serious about America first, so he will try to
dismantle the international trade regime, the ruling class, the banks
and anything else that got us into this mess. On foreign policy his
line about how he will treat nations fairly that don't oppose us is
chilling. He will attack Russia, China, Mexico and others who get in
the way and is willing to risk another world war.

But remember Nixon's "mad dog" strategy in the Cold War -- if the
Kremlin really believes that he is crazy enough to push the nuclear
button, they will be better behaved, than they were with Kennedy for
example. And they were. Just to make sure Nixon made an opening to
China which would be good for US trade and keep the Russians
occupied. He was the most effective world statesman that the US ever
had -- and another Republican president, Eisenhower, completed the
task of building up infrastructure that Roosevelt had begun, while
stopping the generals from pulling the nuclear trigger at least three
times.

On balance I do think WW3 is nearer today, but don't bank on Trump
lighting the blue touch paper. If the Chinese continue to contest the
dollar or Putin keeps flexing his muscles, they had better watch
out. The Russians were the China of their day (10% p.a. growth,
1890-1913) and look what happened next. But Trump knows that his home
economic policy depends on demand staying up in the world as well as
at home and a general war would disrupt that. Trump's actions will
destabilize ruling powers everywhere, in Europe and South Africa, for
example, as well as Russia and China.

WW3 could come from anywhere, not necessarily as a result of Trump's
direct military initiative. But the US would win and come out of a
general war globally more dominant than before, while China would
probably collapse if trade, transport and communications are
disrupted, as they were in the previous world wars, forcing countries
to become more self-sufficient. You can bet that the Pentagon with
State have been mulling over all this for a while. The people who
actually run the country are smarter than most people think -- and
that includes Comey.

Yet, the world and especially the US will become a much more dangerous
place. I can't bear to think what kind of world my 14-year-old
daughter will become an adult in. To be Black, Latino, Muslim or even
a woman in America will be a lot worse -- the first signs of this came
within hours of Trump being elected.

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said that, I believe in EU we have a chance of pioneering completely
different scenarios with DiEM25. Uplifting, but still marginal. We
are not managing to get rid of the 'institutionalised left' elite,
which is into a psychosis I tend to identify with a 'Samson syndrome'
of sorts. Or perhaps they are just too greedy.

ciao